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Steam sales estimation methodology and accuracy

Summary

We have a used sample size of 55 publicly released Steam sales figures to test the VGI unit sales estimates

At an overall level, the VG Inisghts algorithm overestimates Steam games units sold by +3%

At individual game level, VGI estimates were in the +-15% margin of error for 84% of the games

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What can we learn from the highest earning indie developers on Steam?

Only 10% of Steam developers have ever made more than $100k in gross revenue. This article explores what they’re doing that other developers aren’t. It covers self-publishing, genre focus, number of games developed and more.

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All games now have quick stats and player insights!

We’ve just launched another big updated on the platform! Every individual game’s page now shows an overview of quick stats about the game as well as player insights.

Quick game stats

In the example of PUBG (vginsights.com/game/578080), you can now see how many active players the game has right now, what the peak has been in the last 24h, how well the game has been rated, how many units it’s sold and what the average playing time is for a PUBG player. It’s crazy how much time people spend playing it!

This feature is available for everyone for free and gives an immediate overview of the game and its performance

Player insights

This is a premium only feature that shows the game’s player distribution in terms of country split, regional split, average play time and how many games its players own on Steam in total.

For example, majority of PUBG player seem to have got Steam for that game alone. They have few if any other games on Steam.

We hope you’ll enjoy our new features! Happy exploring.

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There are 44,000 game developers on Steam. Who are they?

At the time of writing this, there are 44,000 developers who have released or announced a game on Steam. Collectively, they’re responsible for almost 70,000 games on Steam.

This article explores who these developers are, what type of games they make and how much revenue they generate.

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Make more video games!

We recently published a report about the Steam games market in 2021. Among other things, we reported that there were 11.7k new games on Steam in 2021. This sparked a heated Twitter discussion, culminating with Jeff Vogel’s article called “There are too many video games”.

Given that our data sparked the discussion, we would love to have our say in how to interpret the data. We will be addressing statements made in Vogel’s article that seem to reflect a broader school of thought around the state of the current games industry.

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Video Game Insights 2021 Market Report

The last 2 years of the games market have been dominated by Covid. However, different types of games studios have seen contrasting effects. As a whole, the industry has seen a boom, but these gains haven’t impacted all games equally.

This report summarises PC games trends from 2017-21. It is using public data from Steam API as well as proprietary data gathered by Video Game Insights. Occasionally, references are made to other reports summarising 2021 games landscape.

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Amazon’s New World Launch in Numbers – Sales, Active Players and Reviews

Having sold about 4.5m units in the first month since launch, New World has quickly established itself as a successful AAA game launch. It’s helped to bring Amazon on the map in world of video games and paves the way for further investment and expansion of the Amazon games division.

This article explores the launch and success of New World in numbers, covering sales, active players and more. For live data updates, visit the VG Insights New World Steam Stats page.

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Further analysis into Steam Reviews to Sales ratio – how to estimate video game sales

I recently wrote an article on how to estimate Steam game sales using an updated Boxleiter method or steam reviews to sales ratio.

This article explores the Steam reviews to sales ratio further.

There is a strong correlation between how many reviews a game gets and how many units they’ve sold. However, this ratio does depend on other factors – game’s release year, popularity and even price.

For example, a game with 100,000 units sold might have 1,000 reviews on steam. The ratio would therefore be 100,000 / 1,000 = 100.

We know that the ratio varies based on when the game was released – it’s come down from c. 90x about 7-8 years ago to c. 30x today. This article lays out how the Boxleiter ratio changes based on other factors:

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Valheim’s Hearth & Home update in numbers and graphs

This article looks at Valheim’s long waited update – Hearth & Home and its impact to new and old players.

We’ve previously talked about what led to Valheim’s success during launch. This is more an update what’s happened since.

In short, Valheim’s Hearth & Home update brings back some old players, but doesn’t expand the player base.

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Indie games make up 40% of all units sold on Steam

This mini-article looks at how important indie games are to the Steam ecosystem. We’ll dig into the distribution of Steam games based on publisher types.

The aim is to show what proportion of Steam games, unit sales and active players can be accounted to indie games VS large development studios.